Mar 24 UFC 111 ODDs and Outs

With UFC 111 coming up this weekend, I have decided to see if I can help some readers with some picks for this weekend. I personally went over each fight and provided insight that have helped make my decision and hopefully yours as well. With this card I feel there is some really good money to made. As a great broadcaster once said, "May the winners be yours"

Georges St-Pierre (-800) vs Dan Hardy (+500)

Last 3 Fights

GSP -BJ Penn, Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves

Hardy-Rory Markham, Marcus Davis, Mike Swick

Coming into this fight how can you really go against St-Pierre in this one. He has 6 straight wins and all coming against top talent and has been dominate in doing so. That doesn't necessary mean that you can count out Dan Hardy. In his last 3 fights he has knocked out Rory Markham, out struck a former boxer in Marcus Davis and prevented Mike Swick from providing any kind of offense against him. While Hardy does have the knockout power and thinks he can KO St-Pierre and he won't stand up with him. I don't see it happening. St-Pierre did stand up in his last fight against Thiago Alves who is a better striker then hardy and Alves didn't far well. I think GSP will do the same as he did in his last fight and mix his standup and his ground game. While Hardy has been training with former champ Matt Serra on his ground game. 1 month is not going to defend a ground game that GSP has been working on since he was a teenager.

Outcome-I would put some money on Hardy because of the odds but that is about it. Bet GSP to win this fight in the later rounds but with the -800 you are not going to make cash. So your best bet is to put GSP in some parleys with an underdog.

Frank Mir (-135) vs Shane Carwin (+105)

Last 3 Fights

Mir- Cheick Kongo, Brock Lesner (L), Antonio Nogueira (W)

Carwin-Gabe Gonzaga, Neil Wein, Christian Wllisch

To me this is actually the easiest fight to pick on the card. When you see what Frank Mir has done in his last couple of fights that has been Brock Lesner. He has looked stealer. Besides from his BJJ skills, he has the standup to go with it. This is the first guy to knock out Antonio Nogueira. He was able to do the same to Cheick Kongo with his standup to get a submission win. Mark Dellagrotte has been the key to his improvement. Plus he has also added size and he has been walking around at 285. He will be doing anything possible to get another shot at Brock Lesner. The problem with Mir is he is facing someone bigger then him. Carwin has those huge hands and can put anyone down at anytime. He can also submit you as well but I doubt that he will challenge Mir to a ground fight. The two factors that play into Carwin is 1. In his last fight Gabe Gonzaga did rock him before he won the fight so how is his chin? 2. Can Shane Carwin last long in a fight? He has never gone 2:30 in a fight. Although we don't know if he can last long in a fight I don't think it should be an issue because of his football days. Carwin should still try and end this fight quick.

Outcome-Ring rust will play an affect. Shane Carwin has not fought in a year and we have seen before that it hurts you when you don't fight. I think Mir will be able to get a submission but not before he gets some good licks in by the third round.

Jon Fitch (+130) vs Thiago Alves (-160)

Last 3 Fights

Fitch- Mike Pierce, Paulo Thiago, Akihiro Gono

Alves- GSP (L), Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes

It is hard to believe that it has been over three years since these two fought each other. Fitch was able to get a TKO victory over Alves. While Alves game has dangerously grown since but the problem is, so has Fitch's. Both got title shots against GSP and both got taken 5 round decisions. This is easily the toughest fight to pick on the card. Since Fitch lost to GSP, he has won three straight with his excellent boxing, and BJJ. You of course you can't forget about wrestling that he developed at Purdue. With Alves, we see one of the most devastating strikers in the sport today. He also have a purple belt in BJJ. Alves is still coming off a knee injury so you wonder how that will play out. Alves will try and strike down Fitch while Fitch will stand and trade and try and get the Brazilian to the ground. There match should be a doozy.

Outcome-I think the two will standup and trade with Alves getting the better of the striking. The problem is that Fitch has an iron chin so he will crawl back. I think he will take Alves to the ground and will be able to grind his way to a decision.

Jake Ellengberger (+130) vs Ben Saunders (-160)

Last 3 Fights

Ellenberger-Mike Pyle, Carlos Condit (L), Marcelo Alfaya

Saunders-Marcus Davis, Mike Swick (L), Brandon Wolff

While both guys posses good knockout power, the problem is the height of Ben Saunders. I think the reach advantage will be the difference in this fight and how everything will play out. In Saunders last fight, Marcus Davis had the same problem and when he was able to get in, The Killa B was able to use those knee and knock him out. The first person to do so. With Ellengberger he does have a good ground game as we seen we he out wrestled Carlos Condit. The thing is thou he has not pulled off a submission in just over four years. We have seen the evolution of Saunders in the last couple of years in his overall game minus his lose against Mike Swick. Saunders will continue to work his standup.

Outcome-We are going to see these guys stand and trade until Ellenberger try's for a takedown. I think this is will Saunders will use his knees again and will be able to Knockout out Ellenberger.

Jim Miller (-400) vs Mark Bocek (+300)

Last 3 fights

Miller-Daune Ludwig, Steve Lopez, Mac Danzing

Bocek-Joe Bramner, David Beikhedan, Alvin Robinson

Again I wonder who are the people setting the lines for these fights. I am not surprised that Miller is the favorite but -400 is a little much. Both have been on three fight winning streaks but Miller has faced the better competition. Both of these guys both depend on there submissions skills and there BJJ. It is pretty clear that Boeck is the better of the two. So really the winner will depend on who has the better standup. Both guys from what we seem to be even. I think we can see a fight in the night with these two but only if you are a technical fan of the sport. You do have to give Miller an edge because he will be fighting in his home state of New Jersey.

Outcome-I think we will see a great ground fight with Bocek BJJ and Miller using a mix of both BJJ and wrestling. I do think that Boceck BJJ will be better and the plus 300 is too good to take up. Give a submission or decision victory for the red haired Canadian.

Nate Diaz (-275) vs Rory Markham (+215)

Last 3 fights

Diaz-Gray Maynard (L), Melvin Guillard, Joe Stevenson (L)

Markham-Dan Hardy (L), Brodie Farber, Jay Ellis

It is no secret that Nate Diaz needs win in this fight. He has lost 3 of his last 4 fights although you can argue that his loses to Gray Maynard and Clay Guida could have gone in his favor. This will also see Diaz debut at welterweight. This will be a better move for Diaz. He will not have to cut so much weight before a fight and he will still have a good reach advantage with height. Diaz has the good bjj and has the excellent boxing and he can take a good punch. With the pluses for Diaz can be a big negative for Markham. This guy has not fought in over a year and this can hurt him. The good side for Markham is that he does have some heavy hands which have gotten him 11 of his 16 wins. Also when your training at Miletich fighting system you know that Markham does have good wrestling training which is good because Diaz problem has come from wrestlers. The one problem with Markham is that he does have a questionable chin with all of his loses coming by TKO.

Outcome-Ring rust will be the cause of Markham getting his walking papers from Zuffa. I think Markham will try to knockout Diaz but Diaz has a solid chin. Plus Diaz can stand and trade and I think that is what we will see. I think Diaz will be able to knock him down and be able to take him down for a submission win.

Ricardo Almeida (-155) vs Matt Brown (+125)

Last 3 fights

Almeida-Kendell Grove, Matt Horwich, Patrick Cote (L)

Brown-James Wilks, Pete Sell, Ryan Thomas

This will be one of the more interesting fights on the card. Almeida will be making his debut at welterweight and not against an easy opponent. But you got to wonder why Almedia is making the cut to welterweight. He has won his last two fights so you have to question. Almedia of course is known for his ground skills and his excellent BJJ. While Brown does have BJJ experience Almeida has the clear advantage. Two factors that will play into his fight is how will the weight cut if he can get Brown to the ground. He has had some trouble with strikers before like Patrick Cote. Brown is coming off a huge win over TUF 9 winner James Wilks and keeps improving in his game. He has the great standup and can bang with the best of them. His ground is not the best but he does have good defense with learning from his trainer Jorge Grugel. We will be seeing another ground vs standup fight.

Outcome-Not trusting with how he will deal with the weight cut I think Almeida might be a little fatigue going into the fight. That is not good going in against Brown. Brown does have the heavy hands and I think he will be able to get the knockout.

Rodney Wallace (-125) vs Jared Hamman (-105)

Last 3 fights

Wallace-Brain Stann (L), Greg Milliard, Aaron Stark

Hamman-Alexander Gustafsson, Poni Suganuma, Ibrahim Ibrahim

This fight puts two ex college football players against each other as they survive to keep jobs with the UFC. It is pretty hard to pick a winner between two myself because I have never really got the chance to see either of them fight. From what has been seen Wallace has the size advantage while Hamman has more knockout power. Wallace seems to be more of a wrestling base fighter with most of his wins coming by decision. Either way both fighters will be going all or nothing in this fight.

Outcome-I can't really see how this fight is going to go so I will go on a limb and say Hamman will by Knockout. Again this pick is a lucky guess.

Rousimir Palhares (-240) vs Tomasz Drwal (+190)

Last 3 fights

Palhares-Lucia Linhares, Jeremy Horn, Dan Henderson (L)

Drwal-Drew Mcfedries, Mike Ciernolevicz, Ivan Serati

Normally when you see odds this high on an under card, it is because a veteran is fighting someone make there debut. Palhares and Drwal are guys you don't see on the main card but both are proven veterans on the UFC. I do personally think that these odds are justified. Palhares have proved himself that he can hang with some of the big boys with wins over Jeremy Horn and was able to take punches from Dan Henderson even thou it resulted in a lose. He does train with Brazilian Top Team which has some of the best submission artists in the world and Pahares has been no exceptions pulling off seven submissions in his ten victories. This is not taking anything away from Drawal. The Polish fighter is a good mix martial artist having developed a good all around game in Europe that has faired well in the UFC. Most of his wins have come knockout but he does have five submissions to his credit. I do think this fight will be a classic stand up vs ground game.

Outcome-I think with Palhares ground game will make Drwal want to keep this fight standing up. Palhares will be able to take some punches and will take this fight to the ground and will be able to pull off a submission win. With Palhares high betting odds you will have to throw him in with some parleys.

Kurt Pellegrino (-165) vs Faricio Camoes (+135)

Last 3 fights

Pellegrino-Josh Neer, Robert Emerson, Thiago Tavares

Camoes-Carl Uno (Draw), Torrane Taylor, Sam Morgan

While this fight may look easy for Kurt Pellegrino, it may not be a walk in the park. Camoes does have a lot of experience with fights in Strikeforce and Sho XC before he made it to the UFC. Even thou he fought to a draw against Carl Uno at UFC 106. He would have won that fight if it was for losing a point in the second round for an illegal head kick. He does have a black belt in BJJ which can give him an advantage with Pellegrino also being more of a ground fighter. While Pellegrino may be known for being more of a ground fighter, he can stand and trade if he desires too. Who could forget his fight of the night honors against Thiago Tavares at UFC 88 which was pretty much left in a bloodbath. While Camoes does have the black belt in BJJ under Roylor Gracie, Pellegrino has trained under Renzo Gracie and does have the wrestling background. Also with Pellegrino he will also be fighting in his home state of New Jersey. Like Boeck and Miller, this has the chance to be a good technical fight.

Outcome-I think Pellegrino will be battling on the ground with Camoes with his wrestling be able to reign supreme. I see Batman grinding out a decision in this fight.

Matt Riddle (-270) vs Greg Soto (+210)

Last 3 fights

Riddle-Nick Osipezak (L), Dan Cramer, Steve Bruno

Soto-Ray Steinbeiss, Craig Kaufman, Shawn Forman

We get a veteran of four UFC fights against a fighter making his debut on short notice, you would figure that Riddle should have no problem in this fight. I think we can see the opposite with this fight. Watching some Soto fight's on the internet, I think Riddle will be in for a lot trouble. Soto does have a brown belt in BJJ and does work well on his back as it showed in his fight with Shawn Forman and he is a protege under Kurt Pellegrino so he does have a good training partner. He does also have some good ground and pound to go with his BJJ work. Riddle is coming off a tough knockout of the night lost to Nick ozipezak so it is hard to tell how he will come off his first lose. With Riddle game, he has usually been conservative with his fights and have taken it to the ground and done basically laid and prayed to decision wins. With Soto's ground game I think Riddle would need to test Soto's standup and see if he can out strike him.

Outcome-I do see Riddle taking it to the ground and trying to outwork him. I think Soto has the tools on his back to either pull out a submission or reserve and win via ground and pound.

Fighters to use in parleys. You have to lay too much money to win. Takes these fighters with a slite favorite or good underdog.

GSP (-800)

Nick Diaz (-275)

Rousimir Palhares (-240)

Fighters you can take straight up or mix and match for parleys.

Frank Mir (-135)

Kurt Pellegrino (-165)

Matt Brown (+125)

Ben Saunders (-160)

Jon Fitch (+130)

Rodney Wallace (-125) or Jared Hamman (-105)

Good underdogs

Greg Soto (+210)

Mark Bocek (+300)

EDITOR's NOTE: The Franchise is not responsible for anyone choosing to bet money that they cannot afford to lose on picks that do not pan out. If you choose to gamble based on the advice found in this article or on this website please do so responsibly.

Tags: betting \ Dan Hardy \ GSP \ MMA \ odds \ St-Pierre \ UFC 111

< Prev		Next >