Aug 04 BETTING UFC 117

 

Anderson Silva (26-4) -500 vs. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1) +325

 

Last 3 fights

 

Silva-Damian Maia, Forrest Griffin, Thales Leites

Sonnan-Nate Marquardt, Yushin Okami, Dan Miller

 

 

With his trash talking that has been going on with Chael Sonnen, it is time to either put up or shut up. Sonnen has been running his mouth since getting this fight. While Sonnen is a talker, he is not one to take lightly either. Sonnen does have world class wrestling so if he is able to get Silva on the ground, he may be able to contain him. In his last fight against Nate Marquardt, he was able to hold down the bigger opponent with ease. He also does have some descent striking and he will be trying to push the pace of this fight. With Anderson Silva, what really needs to be said about how good he is? We know he has maybe the best standup in mixed martial arts which gives an edge, plus adding his capoeira skills gives his standup a different mix then most other fighters. He can handle himself on the ground with his black belts in bjj and judo. Plus he has an iron chin as he has never been knocked out. The only thing is if he is going to be like he has been in his last couple of fights, he will be in trouble this time.

 

Outcome-While Sonnen thinks he can do the unthinkable, I think the Spider is playing the silent killer and he will get an early TKO victory.

 

Jon Fitch (22-3 1NC) -135 vs. Thiago Alves (16-6) +105

 

Last 3 fights

 

Fitch-Ben Saunders, Mike Pierce, Paulo Thiago

Alves-GSP (L), Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes

 

It is hard to believe that it has been over three years since these two fought each other. Fitch was able to get a TKO victory over Alves. While Alves game has dangerously grown since but the problem is, so has Fitch's. Both got title shots against GSP and both got taken 5 round decisions. Since Fitch lost to GSP, he has won four straight with his excellent boxing, and BJJ. You of course you can't forget about wrestling that he developed at Purdue. With Alves, we see one of the most devastating strikers in the sport today. He also has a purple belt in BJJ. Alves is still coming off a knee injury so you wonder how that will play out. Alves will try and strike down Fitch while Fitch will stand and trade and try and get the Brazilian to the ground. There match should be a good one.

 

Outcome-I think the two will stand up and trade with Alves getting the better of the striking. The problem is that Fitch has an iron chin so he will crawl back. I think he will take Alves to the ground and will be able to grind his way to a decision.

 

Clay Guida (26-11) -130 vs. Rafael dos Anjos (14-4) even money

 

Last 3 fights

 

Guida-Shannon Gugerty, Kenny Florian (L), Diego Sanchez (L)

Dos Anjos-Terry Etim, Kyle Bradley, Rob Emerson

 

After two tough loses against, Clay Guida was able to bounce back with a submission over Shannon Gugerty. Guida had some tough times in his other two fights but was at least able to hang with Diego Sanchez. This match will be a tough one for the Carpenter because of the ground skills that Dos Anjos possess. While most people think that all Guida does is stand and bang, it is exactly more of his strength in the octagon. He does have good standup but is better at combinations then knocking people out. With Dos Anjos, he possesses some great bjj skills and could submit anyone in the lightweight division. While he have the ground skills his great, his standup skills are not as good. This could be trouble because Guida has never been knocked out.

 

Outcome-While I can see a good ground match between the two, I think Guida’s striking will make the difference for a split decision win.

 

 

Matt Hughes (44-7) +150 vs. Ricardo Almeida (12-3) -170

 

Last 3 fights

 

Hughes-Renzo Gracie, Matt Serra, Thiago Alves (L)

Almeida-Matt Brown, Kendall Grove, Matt Horwich

 

With this fight we will see if there is still some of the old Matt Hughes in him or if his better days are behind him. While Hughes has won two in a row, it is hard to judge off his last fight because Renzo Gracie hasn’t fought in 3 years and I still feel he lost that fight to Matt Serra. We do know that Hughes still has some of the best wrestling skills in the welterweight division and striking that can keep opponents in trouble. With Almeida, he has looked stealer since making the drop to welterweight. That is not bad since he was a pretty good middleweight to begin with. Almeida is one of the best in bjj in the UFC and can fight both on top and on his back. The problem with him has been his standup game. Against Patrick Cote, he wasn’t able to muster any offense unless it was on the ground. While he may be a big welterweight, so is Hughes. Almeida needs to keep this fight on the ground and submit him. He should try and take GSP’s game plan and grab an arm bar

 

Outcome-While Hughes may be one of the greatest, I think it will be his time to step aside. Almeida wins by submission.

 

Roy Nelson (15-4) +285 vs. Junior Dos Santos (11-1) -385

 

Last 3 fights

 

Nelson-Stefan Struve, Brenden Schaub, Jeff Monson

Dos Santos-Gabriel Gonzaga, Gilbert Yvel, Mirko Cro Cop

 

While the lines on this fight may be a little out of line, I can understand why they are out of line. Junior Dos Santos is the heavy favorite for a reason. Since coming to the UFC, he has knocked out everyone who has come in his way. Dos Santos is one of the best in the heavyweight division with his striking and can go in there with the best in the world. The thing is that we have not seen too much of Dos Santos game outside of that. While he does have a brown belt in BJJ, he has never put it to use, so it is hard to say how it will work for him in a fight. While Roy Nelson may be a big underdog, he should not be +2. Nelson has been in the game for a number of years and has a world of experience. He has fought with the best with his amazing skills. He is good in the standup but he will not be the better of the two in this fight. He does have the size and the ground skills that he should be able to get the smaller Dos Santos and have his way.

 

Outcome--While Dos Santos may be a one trick pony on paper, man what a trick. I see Dos Santos becoming a number one contender with a TKO win.

 

 

Dustin Hazelett (13-4) -120 vs. Rick Story (10-3) -105

 

Last 3 fights

 

Hazelett-Paul Daley (L), Tamdan McCrory, Josh Burkman

Story-Nick Ozipczak, Jesse Lennox, Brian Foster

 

Between the two it will be a bjj vs. wrestling match up. With Hazelett, we know that he has some great bjj skills. He trains under Jorge Grugel were he has a brown belt under plus he creates problems because of his long lanky body. His problem is thou he does have somewhat of a suspect chin. We have seen in his fights against Paul Daley and Josh Koscheck. I think Mclovin can still get Story down and get a move at will. With Rick Story, we have seen this wrestler start to become one of the top prospects in the welterweight division. His wrestling skills along with his standup have helped him become undefeated since making it to the UFC. He is also a big sized guy for 170 which could be able to hold Hazelett down. I think he should try and keep this one on the feet.

 

Outcome-I think Story size will get Mclovin in some hot water as Story wins by 2^nd round KO.

 

Phil Davis (6-0) -700 vs. Rodney Wallace (9-2) +500

 

Last 3 fights

 

Davis-Alexander Gustafsson, Brain Stann, David Baggett

Wallace-Jared Hamman (L), Brian Stann (L), Gregory Millard

 

While people may be calling Jon Jones the future of the light heavyweight division, don’t go sleeping on Phil Davis. He is just been as impressive since making it to the UFC. He has had the total package of boxing, bjj and wrestling and has shown that in his wins over Brain Stann and Alexander Gustafsson. He is more of better fighter on the ground. While he may only have his blue belt in bjj, he is a world champ in that reign in the non gi category. With Rodney Wallace, all it seems that he really has is his wrestling, and it hasn’t look that good in the UFC. He has been outmatched in his two fights in the octagon and I am surprised he got a third shot. While his wrestling skills have gotten him eight wins, it won’t be anything he has seen before.

 

Outcome-While Davis is taking this fight on short notice, I think he will have no trouble getting a submission win.

 

 

Tim Boetcsh (11-3) vs. Todd Brown (11-1 1NC)

 

Last 3 fights

 

Boetcsh-Renne Shaner, Rudy Lindsey, Aaron Stark

Brown-Rodney Sleepers, Robert Turner, Ron Fields

 

While Tim Boetcsh was supposed to face Thiago Silva on this card, it should hopefully be an easier return for the UFC. He has gone undefeated since being cut and knows that this could be his last chance of making it to the big time. What got him to the UFC in the first place is that he has good boxing skills being able to knockout guys. He does have wrestling but not skills that will give fighters a lot of trouble. With Todd Brown, I have never heard the name nor could I really find any fight footage on him. We do now that he has some excellent Maui Thai skills and has a brown belt in bjj. From his record, his bjj seems to be his strength and he loves to choke people out. If he can do what it says on paper in the octagon, Boetcsh could have a short night.

 

Outcome-From what I see on I think Todd Brown could be a fighter to watch out for, Boetcsh has never been a fighter that impressed me, so I am picking Brown to choke him out.

 

Johny Hendricks (8-0) -500 vs. Charlie Brenneman (11-1) +325

 

Last 3 fights

 

Hendricks-TJ Grant, Ricardo Funch, Amir Sadollah

Brenneman-Jason High, Phillip Wyman, Mitch Whitesel

With this fight on paper, it seems like both fighters are the same on paper. Both guys seem to have a little advantage in one of their two main parts of there fighting game. With Johny Hendricks, he comes in as one of the most decorated wrestlers that anyone has seen in mixed martial arts. He is a two time NCAA champion and has used his wrestling to obtain a perfect record in mma. He has his striking to go along with his wrestling but he had a little trouble in his last fight against TJ Grant, who he had trouble keeping on the ground. With Charlie Brenneman, he does have wrestling skills that did get him a top 12 finish in college but is nowhere near Hendricks league. He does seem to have the better standup as half of his wins have come by KO. He does use his power to get opponents on the ground and drop his fists and elbows to get the win. With Hendricks, his chin has looked solid so Brenneman will need to keep with some big hits.

 

Outcome-Hendricks is undefeated for a reason. I think his mix of wrestling and standup will be enough to get him a decision.

 

Stefan Struve (19-4) -205 vs. Christian Morecraft (6-0) +165

 

Last 3 fights

 

Struve-Roy Nelson (L), Paul Buentello, Chase Gormley

Morecraft-Lee Beane, Jason Dolloff, Josh Diekman

This could be one of the more intriguing fights of the night. With Stefan Struve, he will be looking to get his career back on track after his KO lost to Roy Nelson. The Frenchmen still has some skills to make him a good heavyweight. With his 6'11 height and body frame to go with his dangerous ground game, he has many different ways to make you tap. The problem is that his chin is a little suspect. Three of his four lost have come by the way of knockout so he will want to take this on the mat. With Christian Morecraft, it is hard to tell what kind of fighter he really is when he entire career time is just over seven minutes. With his size this guy could be like Shane Carwin where he has similar with some striking to go with some submission skills. Or he could be like Gilbert Aldana who came into the UFC with the same style until being stopped in his debut by Paul Buentello at UFC 57. So only time will tell how this kid will do.

 

Outcome-I am taking a gamble on this I am picking Morecraft to get the KO win. Struve does have a suspect chin and he has been knocked out quick.

 

Ben Saunders (8-2-2) -265 vs. Dennis Hallman (41-13-2 1NC) +185

 

Last 3 fights

 

Saunders-Jon Fitch (L), Marcus Davis, Mike Swick (L)

Hallman-John Howard (L), Justin Davis, Danny Ruiz

 

In the opening bout of the evening, we will see a bit of a dozy. Ben Saunders has looked good at times in the octagon but he has lost two of his last three fights. While he took the Jon Fitch fight at the absolute last second, he did not do anything to do any damage. I think Saunders needs to do what he did in his last fight against Marcus Davis. If he can use his reach and drop some killer knee shots, he should have no trouble. While Dennis Hallman may be getting up there in age, he is still one of the better grapplers in mixed martial arts. With over 30 submission wins, you know he will be trying to get this to the ground. The thing is with Hallman he has not been all that great in his standup game. He will need to use his strength and control the Killa with his wrestling.

 

Outcome-I think Saunders will be able to bounce back after his lose to Fitch to secure a decision win.

 

Parley bets

 

Anderson Silva

Ben Saunders

Johny Hendricks

Junior Dos Santos

 

Straight up winners

 

Jon Fitch

Clay Guida

Ric Story

 

Underdogs

 

Matt Hughes

Christain Morecraft

Tags: Anderson Silva \ Chael Sonnen \ Clay Guida \ Dustin Hazelett \ Jon Fitch \ Junior Dos Santos \ Matt Hughes \ MMA \ Phil Davis \ Rafael do Anjos \ Ricardo Almeida \ Rick Story \ Rodney Wallace \ Roy Nelson \ Thiago Alves \ UFC 117

< Prev		Next >